… The issue for Microsoft is that Wall Street is touchy about the growth of its Azure infrastructure cloud business, and as the numbers show, Big Bill is a lot more dependent on OpenAI than OpenAI will be on Big Bill. …
… Given its pole position in code assistants and its consequential and more explosive revenue growth, Anthropic’s recent revenue curve is perhaps a better barometer than OpenAI. …
… Here is how I think this is playing out: Here is another interesting chart that shows the growth of AWS systems meaning servers, storage, and networking capacity versus the advertising business at Amazon: There is no reason these two revenue stream should correlate, but they do. …
… This chart above shows those four datapoints in solid red and fills in the gaps for the missing quarters to give you a probably shape of the AI business ARR growth curve over time. …