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Taiwan matters for three overlapping reasons. The first is geographic. Taiwan sits at the center of the first island chain, between Japan and the Philippines. If Beijing controlled it, the Chinese Navy would have unimpeded access to the open Pacific. The second is political. Xi Jinping has tied his legacy to “national rejuvenation,” and in his telling, that includes resolving the Taiwan question on Beijing’s terms. Whether Taiwan’s future is decided peacefully — without coercion, and in accordance with Taiwan’s democratic wishes — will define the future of regional order. If China can seize Ta